Crime is Down in Winnipeg–But No One Knows Exactly Why

Leave a Comment / By /

Author: Erin Jeon, University of Manitoba Law Student

Crime in Winnipeg decreased for the second straight year, according to the recent 2024 Winnipeg Police Service (“WPS”) statistical report. The volume of crimes decreased by 0.8% from 2023, driven primarily by reductions in violent crime (-1.4%) and property crimes (-2.3%).1 Additionally, the overall severity of crime decreased by 5.2% from 2023, with the severity of violent crime shrinking by 5%.2 It is the first time in four years that violent crime has decreased in volume and severity; if the year 2020 (which was clearly exceptional due to the pandemic) is excluded, violent crime and crime severity shrunk for the first time in a decade.3 There were reductions across major violent crime categories, including robberies, assaults, and sexual assaults.4 Notably, crimes involving bear spray were down 29.4% compared with 2023, likely due to rules enacted under the Pesticides and Fertilizers License Regulation in April 2023.5 Crime in the Central police district, which includes the downtown area, decreased by 9.5%.6

Not all of the statistics are entirely positive. Assaults against peace officers reached a recent historic high, increasing by 8.5% from 2023.7 Crime in the West police district also increased considerably, though the WPS attributed the increase to population growth.8 While certain property crimes such as break and enters and motor vehicle thefts saw moderate decreases, reported instances of shoplifting increased by 41.1%.9 However, this particular increase is likely due to increased reporting, which the WPS has made an effort to encourage.10 In a similar vein, youth crime saw a 4.9% increase, partly due to the WPS identifying youth who violated their bail, probation, or court order.11

Despite crime being a major political talking point, politicians seem reluctant to take credit for this decrease. Sure, the decreases may be seen as marginal, especially considering that the volume of violent crimes in 2024 was 33.4% higher than in pre-COVID 2019–but when have politicians ever shied away from celebrating their successes, real or perceived?12 So why the relative silence on the issue? The likely answer, according to the Winnipeg Free Press’s Tom Brodbeck: no one can pinpoint exactly why crime is down.13

Headline-grabbing changes to things like bail and sentencing are notably absent, and incarceration rates have remained steady.14 The province did enact The Long-Bladed Weapon Control Act, intended to restrict the sale of long knives and machetes; however, this legislation only came into effect on December 31, 2024, and therefore had essentially no impact on 2024 crime statistics.15 What is driving a decrease in crime is therefore much more complex and nuanced than a single bill. It is likely a combination of factors–community efforts, strategic policing, regulatory changes, and housing supports, for example–that is fueling the downward shift.16

There are certain steps taken by the Manitoba government that have potentially led to the decrease in violent crime and crime overall–for instance, the new bear spray rules and the hiring of twelve new police officers in 2024. Additionally, community initiatives such as Powerlines (phone lines that allow for anonymous crime reporting)17 and the Bear Clan Patrol (an Indigenous-led, volunteer-based security force)18 work with the WPS to fill policing gaps and create safer communities. Housing projects such as End Homelessness Winnipeg and Equal Housing Initiative are working to find and create homes for unhoused people, many of whom struggle with addiction and mental health issues.19

Wraparound supports such as community and housing initiatives are closely linked with access to justice. Broadly defined, access to justice encompasses the meeting of people’s needs, particularly the needs of vulnerable populations.20 Frequently, vulnerability compounds the effect of legal problems.21 In a criminal context, the likelihood and the consequences of a criminal conviction “are directly influenced by…the means and social capital of those who are convicted.”22 There is a cyclical nature to poverty and criminality. The justice system can cause the accumulation of debt through fines and court fees; additionally, those who have previously been incarcerated make considerably less income and rely more on social assistance payments than the general population.23 Indigenous people in Canada struggle with multi-generational poverty, perpetuating the gross overrepresentation of Indigenous people in the justice system.24 Poverty, together with social- and health-related problems, drive up crime rates.25 Considering these things, addressing the underlying causes of crime decreases the number of people who come into contact with the justice system, and increases access to justice, both for those in the system and the wider community.

A single organization or government department cannot drive down crime rates. The resources of organizations, including the government, are limited. Crime and its causes are multifaceted–often an intersection of factors such as economic instability, inequality, family environment, addiction, and mental health struggles.26 Such a complex problem cannot have a simple solution. Rather, a combination of efforts with numerous approaches in addressing crime are needed if a downward trend is to be formed. Wraparound supports–effective at reducing recidivism–pay dividends in reducing crime.27

A decrease in crime, while positive, does not need to be flaunted–but we must recognize where the solutions truly lie.

To view the WPS 2024 statistical report, click here.

To view the interactive WPS crime and calls for service map, click here.

  1. Winnipeg Police Service, 2024 Statistical Report (Winnipeg: Winnipeg Police Service, 2025) at 7. ↩︎
  2. Crime severity is calculated by the Crime Severity Index, which considers both the volume of crime and the relative severity of crime based on incarcerations rates and the average length of sentencing decisions made by the courts; ibid at 9. ↩︎
  3. Ibid at 7, 9; Government of Manitoba, “New Winnipeg Police Service Data for 2024 Shows Improvement in Crime Statistics” (7 May 2025), online: <news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html?item=68937#:~:text=Excluding%20a%20decrease%20during%20the,weapon%20down%2023%20per%20cent>. ↩︎
  4. Winnipeg Police Service, supra note 1 at 10. ↩︎
  5. Ibid at 11; Pesticides and Fertilizers License Regulation, Man Reg 216/87, s 2(1). ↩︎
  6. Winnipeg Police Service, supra note 1 at 18. ↩︎
  7. Ibid at 10. ↩︎
  8. Ibid at 19; Chris Kitching, “City’s Crime Rate Dropped in 2024, but Police Chief Says It Can’t Be Called a Victory”, Winnipeg Free Press (7 May 2025), online: <winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/2025/05/07/violent-crime-down-slightly-city-police>. ↩︎
  9. Winnipeg Police Service, supra note 1 at 12. ↩︎
  10. Kevin Rollason, “Retailers See ‘Turning Point’ in Fight Against Shoplifting”, Winnipeg Free Press (7 May 2025), online: <winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/2025/05/07/retailers-see-turning-point-in-fight-against-shoplifting>. ↩︎
  11. Winnipeg Police Service, supra note 1 at 13. ↩︎
  12. Most categories of crime were down significantly in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, these years are often not considered when analyzing crime trends. Ibid at 10. ↩︎
  13. Tom Brodbeck, “Crime Down but Politicians Aren’t Taking Credit – And There’s a Reason for That”, Winnipeg Free Press (15 May 2025), online: <winnipegfreepress.com/local/2025/05/15/crime-down-but-politicians-arent-taking-credit-and-theres-a-reason-for-that>. ↩︎
  14. It should be noted that increased jail time has failed to decrease crime. Ibid; Statistics Canada, “Average Counts of Adults in Provincial and Territorial Correctional Programs” (19 March 2024), online: <www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510015401&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.8&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2018+%2F+2019&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2022+%2F+2023&referencePeriods=20180101%2C20220101>; Public Safety Canada, “The Effect of Prison on Criminal Behaviour” (November 1999), online: <publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/ffct-prsn/index-en.aspx>. ↩︎
  15. The Long-Bladed Weapon Control Act, CCSM c L214. ↩︎
  16. Brodbeck, supra note 13. ↩︎
  17. Mikael Banese, “Community Groups Popping Up to Try and Reduce Crime in Winnipeg” (5 May 2023), online: <winnipeg.citynews.ca/2023/05/05/community-groups-reduce-crime/>. ↩︎
  18. Government of Canada, “Peaceful Protectors: The Bear Clan Patrol’s Role in Winnipeg’s North End” (last modified 3 November 2024), online: <rcaanc-cirnac.gc.ca/eng/1727206548879/1727206580310>. ↩︎
  19. Equal Housing Initiative, “Our Vision” (last visited 22 May 2025), online: <equalhousinginitiative.com/>; End Homelessness Winnipeg, “Together…We Can End Homelessness in Winnipeg” (last visited 22 May 2025), online: <endhomelessnesswinnipeg.ca/>. ↩︎
  20. Ireland Bellsmith et al, Poverty and Access to Justice: Review of the Literature (Vancouver: International Centre for Criminal Law Reform, 2022) at 5. ↩︎
  21. Ibid at 5. ↩︎
  22. Ibid at 3. ↩︎
  23. Ibid at 18. ↩︎
  24. Ibid at 19. ↩︎
  25. Ibid at 5. ↩︎
  26. CS&CPC, “The Root Causes of Crime” (1996), online (pdf): <preventingcrime.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Causes_of_Crime.pdf>. ↩︎
  27. Government of Canada, “The Effectiveness of Restorative Justice Practices: A Meta Analysis” (last modified 26 August 2022), online: <justice.gc.ca/eng/rp-pr/csj-sjc/jsp-sjp/rp01_1-dr01_1/p7.html>. ↩︎

The views expressed in these blogs do not necessarily reflect the views of the Faculty of Law at the University of Manitoba and should not be construed as legal advice or endorsement.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Scroll to Top